Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the National Unity Government (NUG) and the Myanmar military junta (State Administration Council/SAC) hold a direct, in-person meeting or negotiation before December 31, 2025. The meeting must involve official representatives from both sides and be publicly confirmed by credible news sources or official statements from either party.

Resolution sources: Major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera), official NUG statements via nugmyanmar.org, or Myanmar state media announcements.

The market resolves NO if no such meeting occurs by the deadline.

Background

Myanmar's civil war was triggered by the 2021 military coup but is also a result of long-standing tensions between the military and civil society, and between the Bamar ethnic majority and the country's ethnic minorities. The National Unity Government (NUG) was formed in April 2021 by ousted officials, oppressed ethnic groups, and pro-democracy protestors, with the stated goal of governing Myanmar as a "federal democratic union."

As of 2024, Myanmar's military government controls only 21 percent of the country's territory, while rebel forces and ethnic armies hold 42 percent. On 31 July 2025, the SAC announced its dissolution and power was formally transferred to the National Defence and Security Council under the chairmanship of Min Aung Hlaing.

Considerations

The junta has adamantly refused to negotiate with the NUG, labeling it a terrorist group. The NUG and their allies will not negotiate with the military en bloc, though they are pragmatic enough to cut deals with individual leaders. In December 2023, China helped hold peace talks between the Tatmadaw and various rebel groups, including the Brotherhood Alliance, but the Brotherhood Alliance announced these talks "lasted only 10 minutes" and vowed to continue fighting. Bangladesh, China, and ASEAN have thus far negotiated only with the junta.