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MANIFOLD
Will we get another warning shot before 2028-08-30?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ56
2028
68%
chance

Nate Soares and Ajeya Cotra say that the Hugging Face hack might have been our last warning shot. WDYT?

Reasons this might resolve yes:

  • Nate Soares calling something else a warning shot

  • Ajeya Cotra calling something else a warning shot

  • Either of them say they were wrong

  • Something that's "bigger" than the Hugging Face hack and contained by humans

Reasons this might resolve no:

  • Nothing bigger than the Hugging Face hack until 2028-08-30

  • AI escaping that we're not able to contain

  • >1M human deaths through an AI incident

Resolves by my judgment. I will not vote in this market.

https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/the-hugging-face-attack-surprised

Nate Soares ⏹️ (@So8res) on X

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If either of them call it a warning shot, but also say it's smaller than the Hugging Face incident, how does this resolve?

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