This market is necessarily slightly subjective. I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as: The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout). I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source. If the people who create software, who formerly called themselves Software Engineers, start calling themselves something else ("AI prompter"/"prompt engineer"), I will track that in the population statistics as well.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, >=2030, followed by 2028 and 2029 are most likely. See the market for live updates (37 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment?

This market is necessarily slightly subjective. I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:

The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).

I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.

If the people who create software, who formerly called themselves Software Engineers, start calling themselves something else ("AI prompter"/"prompt engineer"), I will track that in the population statistics as well.

People are also trading

Related questions