Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the U.S. military conducts any confirmed strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen between now and 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, January 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on official announcements from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the Department of Defense. If no strikes are announced by this deadline, the market resolves NO.

Background

On May 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump declared an end to strikes on Yemen as a result of a ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis, brokered by Oman. The Houthis agreed to halt their attacks on U.S. vessels but otherwise would continue their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and emphasized that the ceasefire did not in "any way, shape, or form" apply to Israel. The Houthis resumed attacks on non-U.S. vessels in the Red Sea on July 6, 2025, sinking the Liberian-flagged cargo ship Magic Seas. The Trump administration views the Houthi threat as a strategic priority, but there are stark differences in their approaches to countering the challenge compared to the Biden administration.