This market resolves YES if the US DOE "impracticable to trace" graphite waiver (FEOC exemption) is still in active effect on December 31, 2026, allowing Chinese-sourced graphite active anode material to qualify EVs for the IRA Section 30D $7,500 federal tax credit.

Current status (April 2026): Exemption active; scheduled to expire January 1, 2027. This market resolves YES if DOE extends the waiver past January 1, 2027, or delays its expiry to after December 31, 2026. It resolves NO if the waiver expires as scheduled on January 1, 2027 (meaning on December 31, 2026, it is still active — so YES if the Jan 1, 2027 expiry is still the scheduled date but the waiver is "in force" on Dec 31).

Clarification: The waiver is active through December 31, 2026 (expiring Jan 1, 2027). So the key question is whether DOE extends it or allows it to lapse on schedule.

• YES if: Waiver remains in force on Dec 31, 2026 (includes the base case of no change)

• Actually the FEOC waiver is scheduled to be active through Dec 31, 2026 by default. This market asks: will it remain active (YES = status quo maintained, no early revocation)?

YES if:

• DOE FEOC graphite exemption is in force on December 31, 2026 (either on original schedule expiring Jan 1, 2027, or extended)

• EVs with Chinese graphite anodes still qualify for Section 30D credit on Dec 31, 2026

NO if:

• DOE revokes or modifies the FEOC graphite waiver before December 31, 2026

• IRS/Treasury rules that Chinese graphite disqualifies EVs from 30D before Dec 31, 2026

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. US DOE FEOC guidance portal (energy.gov/ira)

2. IRS Notice and Treasury guidance on Section 30D compliance

3. Reuters, Bloomberg, Automotive News coverage of IRA graphite exemption