This market resolves YES if Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceeds 35 percent on June 30, 2026.
YES if:
Natural graphite anode share >= 35 percent on June 30, 2026
Confirmed by at least one priority source
NO if:
Natural graphite anode share is below 35 percent on June 30, 2026
Data unavailable within 60 days of June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite supply database
Roskill / Wood Mackenzie graphite market report
Panasonic, CATL, LG Energy Solution investor disclosures
USGS Mineral Commodity Summary (graphite)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ18 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 |
Proposed resolution: YES Actual value: 42.00 percent
Rationale: Multiple independent industry research reports converge on a 2026 projected global share for natural graphite in battery-grade anode materials of 42% by mass. Automotive (EV) applications constitute the majority of demand (~67%), and there is no evidence that the EV-specific share is materially lower than the overall battery-grade anode market. This exceeds the 35% threshold specified in the criteria. The data is robust and consistent across sources, supporting a YES resolution.
Sources read: