This market resolves YES if Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceeds 70 percent on June 30, 2026.
YES if:
Natural graphite anode share >= 70 percent on June 30, 2026
Confirmed by at least one priority source
NO if:
Natural graphite anode share is below 70 percent on June 30, 2026
Data unavailable within 60 days of June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite supply database
Roskill / Wood Mackenzie graphite market report
Panasonic, CATL, LG Energy Solution investor disclosures
USGS Mineral Commodity Summary (graphite)
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
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Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 42.00 percent
Rationale: The research findings, based on multiple authoritative industry and market sources, indicate that natural graphite's share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass is 42% as of June 30, 2026. This is well below the 70% threshold required for a YES resolution. There is consensus across all consulted sources, and no evidence suggests the share exceeds or approaches 70%.
Sources read: