This market resolves YES if Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceeds 55 percent on June 30, 2026.
YES if:
Natural graphite anode share >= 55 percent on June 30, 2026
Confirmed by at least one priority source
NO if:
Natural graphite anode share is below 55 percent on June 30, 2026
Data unavailable within 60 days of June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite supply database
Roskill / Wood Mackenzie graphite market report
Panasonic, CATL, LG Energy Solution investor disclosures
USGS Mineral Commodity Summary (graphite)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ41 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 43.00 percent
Rationale: The best available industry reports (Mordor Intelligence, IndustryResearch.biz, Business Research Insights) consistently place natural graphite's share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass at 42-43% in 2025-2026, with synthetic graphite remaining dominant. No source projects natural graphite exceeding the 55% threshold by June 30, 2026. While the data is 'inferred' rather than directly measured for the exact date and EV-only segment, the convergence of multiple authoritative sources
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