Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the U.S. military conducts any airstrike, missile strike, or other direct military strike against targets in Syria between now and 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, January 18, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the U.S. Department of Defense. The market resolves NO if no such strikes occur by the deadline.

Background

The U.S. has launched another round of retaliatory strikes against the Islamic State in Syria following last month's ambush that killed two U.S. soldiers and one American civilian interpreter in the country. Operation Hawkeye Strike, named for the two US soldiers killed from the "Hawkeye State" of Iowa, began on December 19, 2025 as a direct response to the fatal attack carried out by an ISIS gunman in Palmyra, Syria that killed two US soldiers and one civilian interpreter just six days prior. The strikes were expected to last several weeks or up to a month. On 10 January 2026 at around 12:30 pm EST, the U.S. and Jordan launched a second wave of airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, striking over 35 targets using over 90 precision munitions.

Considerations

NBC News previously reported, per two U.S. officials, that the strikes were expected to last several weeks or up to a month. This suggests additional strikes beyond those already conducted on December 19 and January 10 are anticipated as part of the ongoing operation.