This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 12 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 12 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 12 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 2.17 USD/kg
Rationale: The best available public data for May 31, 2026, shows the spot price of Sm2O3 in Northeast Asia at $2.17/kg, with all other referenced sources (EXW/FOB China) in the same range. There is no evidence or indication that the Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeded $12/kg on the target date. While the data is 'thin' and not directly from a named Western CIF Rotterdam source, all available market indicators are far below the threshold, and no sources suggest a price remotely close to $12/kg. Thi
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