This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 50 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 50 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 50 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 9.77 USD/kg
Rationale: All available market data for June 30, 2026, indicate the samarium (Sm) metal spot price is around $9.77/kg, well below the $50/kg threshold. Although the question specifies 'Western' prices, no Western benchmark was found, but there is no evidence of a significant premium in those markets. The Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and all consulted benchmarks report prices much lower than $50/kg, making it overwhelmingly likely the Western price did not exceed the threshold on the resolution date.
Sources read: