This market resolves YES if China's full-year 2026 refined copper output, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is more than 10% below its full-year 2025 output (i.e. below ~13.25 Mt against the 14.72 Mt 2025 figure). Resolves on the NBS figure available on January 31, 2027, otherwise NO.

YES if: NBS full-year 2026 refined copper output is below ~13.25 Mt. NO if: it is at or above ~13.25 Mt.

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. National Bureau of Statistics of China (stats.gov.cn), output of major industrial products

2. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting of the NBS figure