Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if total annual copper cathode production from bio-leaching of primary sulfide ores exceeds 10,000 tonnes in calendar year 2028.
YES if:
Combined output from Nuton-enabled sites (JCM + any new deployments) plus any other commercial bio-leaching operations on primary sulfides totals >10 kt
Production data published in operator annual reports, technical reports, or verified by independent commodity consultancies
NO if:
Total primary sulfide bio-leach production remains below 10 kt in CY2028
Only pilot/test production (not commercial-scale) exceeds threshold
Conventional oxide heap leaching volume does not count
Resolution sources (priority order):
Rio Tinto / Gunnison Copper annual production reports
Partner company disclosures (Arizona Sonoran, Lion Copper, McEwen Mining)
Major commodity consultancies (Wood Mackenzie, CRU, S&P Global)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries
Background
Annual global copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides was effectively zero before December 2025, when Rio Tinto's Nuton venture produced its first commercial cathode at Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) in Arizona. JCM targets 30,000 tonnes over 4 years (7,500 tpa combined from Nuton sulfide pad and conventional ROM leaching). Reaching 10 kt annual output by 2028 would require JCM at full steady-state plus early production from at least one additional site.
Leading Wave 2 candidates include Yerington (Lion Copper, Nevada — PFS completed Aug 2025 using 73.2% Nuton sulfide recovery) and Cactus Mine (Arizona Sonoran — Rio Tinto JV option, 80-85% extraction demonstrated). BHP is also trialing Nuton at Escondida for waste dump leaching.
For context, global mined copper is ~22 Mt/year. Bio-leached primary sulfide copper at 10 kt would be <0.05% of global supply but proves the technology scales beyond a single demonstration, validating the thesis of 50-100 ktpa by 2030 and >500 ktpa by 2031+.
Key Considerations
JCM is the only operating Nuton site as of Feb 2026 (~7.5 ktpa nameplate)
Bio-leach ramp-up involves bacterial lag phase that could delay full production
Thermal management is the key technical risk (cold spots >20% of heap volume)
No second Nuton site has begun construction as of Feb 2026
Nuton's 18-24 month brownfield model enables faster deployment than greenfield
Competitive bio-leaching (Jetti Resources) could add to primary sulfide totals
US government 48C tax credits incentivize domestic copper bio-leach projects
AWS offtake deal establishes demand channel for Nuton output
1,000