This market resolves YES if China March 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 20 tonnes.
What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending March 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 20 tonnes for March 2026 NO if: Export volume below 20 tonnes
Resolution sources (priority order):
GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data
Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4 |
Proposed resolution: YES Actual value: 23.90 tonnes
Rationale: The best available data, sourced from Asian Metal and corroborated by secondary industry summaries, reports that China's Sm2O3 export volume for March 2026 was 23.9 tonnes. This figure exceeds the 20 tonne threshold specified in the criteria. The methodology is standard (Chinese customs data), and no conflicting data was found. The criteria do not specify a named source, so this widely cited industry synthesis is appropriate.
Sources read: