This market resolves YES if China March 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.
What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending March 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 80 tonnes for March 2026 NO if: Export volume below 80 tonnes
Resolution sources (priority order):
GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data
Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 23.90 tonnes
Rationale: The best available data, attributed to Asian Metal and corroborated by multiple secondary sources, states that China's Sm2O3 export volume for March 2026 was 23.9 tonnes. This is well below the 80 tonne threshold specified in the criteria. No conflicting figures were found in other reputable sources, and the methodology (Chinese customs data) is standard for this metric.
Sources read: