Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Lynas Rare Earths reports at least one month of production loss in 2026. Resolution will be based on official company announcements, quarterly earnings reports, or investor presentations available on the Lynas Rare Earths investor relations website (https://www.lynasrareearths.com/investors/). A production loss is defined as any period where actual output falls materially below nameplate capacity or stated production guidance due to operational disruptions, facility shutdowns, or force majeure events. The market resolves NO if Lynas reports no month-long production loss in 2026. The market resolves NO if Lynas has not reported any 2026 month-long production loss in 2026 by Jan 31 2027.

Background

Lynas Rare Earths is the world's biggest rare earth miner outside China, with a fully integrated supply chain covering everything from mining to processing and advanced material production. Its Mt Weld mine and plant in Western Australia feed downstream facilities in Kalgoorlie (Australia) and Gebeng (Malaysia). As of November 2025, Lynas warned of a one-month production shortfall this quarter due to significant power supply disruptions at its Kalgoorlie processing facility in Western Australia, demonstrating the vulnerability of its operations to infrastructure failures.

Considerations

Lynas's Malaysian processing license runs out in March 2026—it'll need government sign-off to keep running, and any hiccups from environmental or political pushback could disrupt business or ramp up costs. Additionally, Lynas is expanding its heavy rare earth separation in Malaysia and looking at a new US facility, and delays or cost overruns with these builds could eat into returns and push back when Lynas starts earning real cash from them.