Resolution criteria
The Wagerup gallium plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually. This market resolves YES if production in the trailing twelve months (T12M) as of Q2 2027 exceeds 10 tonnes. Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official quarterly or annual production reports, or verified third-party sources reporting Wagerup gallium output. The market resolves NO if T12M production as of Q2 2027 is 10 tonnes or below.
Background
Alcoa's Wagerup gallium plant is located at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with development supported by Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, through a Joint Development Agreement signed with Alcoa in August 2025. Alcoa is targeting 2026 for the final investment decision and production. The plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually, which would represent around 10% of the world's gallium.
Considerations
A previous attempt by French company Rhone Poulenc to extract gallium from Alcoa's Pinjarra refinery only operated from 1989 to 1991, and again briefly in 1996 and 1997. The targeted schedule is extremely ambitious to the point of being unrealistic, with the public environmental approval process not yet started as of late October 2025. Achieving 10+ tonnes of production by Q2 2027 would require the facility to reach operational status and ramp production within approximately 18 months from the current date.
1,000The JV clearly targets large-scale output (100 t/y) and has strong political backing, so once built, surpassing 10 t T12M is trivial; the main risk is schedule slippage into late 2027 rather than technical inability. I’d lean modestly above current market pricing but discount heavily for WA approvals, construction delays, and ramp-up risk in a strategically sensitive, first-wave non‑China gallium project.