Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued. If the revised 2025 estimate for automotive secondary supply of rhodium exceeds 303 koz this market will resolve YES. If no report is issued by the end of 2025 the market will resolve N/A.

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if Johnson Matthey’s next PGM Market Report/update published in 2025 shows the 2025 rhodium “Secondary supply — Automotive” strictly greater than 303 ('000 troy oz, i.e., koz) in the Rhodium supply and demand table. Resolves NO if it is 303 or lower.

• If no JM PGM report/update is published by Dec 31, 2025, resolves N/A.

• Verify on JM’s PGM Market Reports page and in the Rhodium tables of the 2025 report. Note: JM defines rhodium “secondary supply” as open‑loop automotive recycling; if an update omits the “Automotive” sub‑row, use the “Total secondary supply”. (matthey.com)

• Where to check:

  • PGM Market Reports hub (latest 2025 report/update). (matthey.com)

  • Example location: May 2025 report, Rhodium supply and demand (pp. 27–28). (matthey.com)

Background

• The May 2025 Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report lists 2025 rhodium “Secondary supply — Automotive” at 303 '000 oz (303 koz), equal to the total secondary supply for rhodium per JM’s definition. (matthey.com). (They simply publish a single secondary supply line labelled “Automotive” in the rhodium table, and that number is what goes into the Total Supply calculation. We expect the same convention, whereby total secondary supply and automotive are treated as synonymous.)

• Johnson Matthey states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May; any November update, if issued, will appear on the same reports page. (matthey.com)

Considerations

• Units: If the update only shows tonnes, >303 koz corresponds to >9.4 tonnes in the 2025 column. (matthey.com)

• JM footnote: “Secondary supply comprises ‘open‑loop’ recycling from the automotive sector,” so “Automotive” and “Total secondary supply” are equivalent for rhodium. (matthey.com)

• Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market NO, based on their review of the JM May 2025 report, which shows the 2025 rhodium secondary supply (automotive) at 303 koz — not strictly greater than 303 koz.

• Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel) rather than NO as previously indicated. This differs from the earlier proposed resolution of NO (based on the JM May 2025 report showing 303 koz, not strictly greater than 303 koz).

• Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel) rather than NO as previously indicated. This differs from the earlier proposed resolution of NO (based on the JM May 2025 report showing 303 koz, not strictly greater than 303 koz).

• Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel) rather than NO. This differs from the earlier proposed resolution of NO, which was based on the JM May 2025 report showing rhodium secondary supply (automotive) at exactly 303 koz — not strictly greater than 303 koz.

• Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel) rather than NO. This differs from the resolution criteria in the description, which states the market resolves NO if the JM report shows rhodium secondary supply at 303 koz or lower, and N/A only if no report is published by Dec 31, 2025.

• Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market YES, citing a value of 325 koz for 2025 rhodium secondary supply (automotive recycling) from the Johnson Matthey May 2025 PGM Market Data. This differs from previous proposed resolutions of NO and N/A. The creator is about to resolve the market — see the linked comment for details.

• Update 2026-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel), stating that no exact 2025 automotive recycling figure is published in available summaries, and that Johnson Matthey's historical/forecast Excel file is inaccessible from public sources. This differs from the resolution criteria in the description, which states the market resolves NO if the JM report shows rhodium secondary supply at 303 koz or lower, and N/A only if no report is published by Dec 31, 2025. Note: previous proposed resolutions included NO (303 koz from May 2025 report) and YES (325 koz from JM May 2025 PGM Market Data).

• Update 2026-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market NO, citing the JM May 2025 PGM Market Report which states rhodium secondary supply is estimated at 9 tonnes (~290,000 oz) in 2024 and is expected to remain flat in 2025 — below the 303 koz threshold. This differs from previous proposed resolutions of N/A and YES (325 koz).