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MANIFOLD
Will global primary rhenium production exceed 70 thousand kg in the year ending December 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2027
57%
chance
5

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable global_rhenium_primary_production exceeds 70 thousand kg on March 31, 2027.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/global_rhenium_primary_production.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: USGS estimate of world primary rhenium production for the calendar year ending December 2026 (reported in the USGS MCS published ~February, settled March 31).

YES if: USGS global primary Re production >= 70 thousand kg for the year NO if: USGS global primary Re production < 70 thousand kg for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center)

  2. USGS Minerals Yearbook — rhenium chapter

  3. CRU Group or Wood Mackenzie rhenium production data

  4. Molymet annual report — rhenium processing volumes (proxy for global share)

Market context
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