The probability of this market resolving YES is equal to y’all’s prediction. | Manifold

The probability of this market resolving YES is equal to y’all’s prediction.

15

90Ṁ2513

resolved May 16

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N/A

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The predicted yes value in this market is the chance of it resolving. It resolves on January 1st.

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@mods roll FairlyRandom or something and resolve?

It resolves on January 1st.

just to clarify, because of timezone things - am i correct in understanding that this resolves according to the probability at closing time?

@MikhaFischler Seconding the question

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This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

If the chance for this market to resolve is even, this market will resolve yes. Otherwise it resolves no.

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

Related questions

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

If the chance for this market to resolve is even, this market will resolve yes. Otherwise it resolves no.

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

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