Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?
32
249
610
2099
49%
chance

'Most' is relative to the number of computers.

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@MikeTearon This seems like it should have the close date extended to 2100.

bought Ṁ130 of YES

Back of envelope around 40 billion new silicon computers per year, there are probably a few trillion in use at any given time. I'm curious what the argument for "No" is here. We fully switch to diamond wafers and phase out the majority of the old stock in 77 years? Is this an AI bet or something? I don't think my teapot needs to clock to 100GHz.

predicts NO

@Sailfish singularity + nanotech

@Sailfish I definitely expect the majority of the stock to be new stock long before 2100; I'd also expect the majority of the current stock to be phased out well before then. (I probably wouldn't place more than token bets given the timeframe, but both of those might make interesting markets.)

Not interested in locking away my mana until 2100.

@GustavoLacerda The new loan system means the amount that is locked away decays exponentially at a rate of 4% per day, returning to your balance to be used again even while still invested.

You can see this happen each day under Notifications > Balance Changes tab

@TomPotter That is incredibly fast. So... by the time we get to 2100, ~0% of my money will still be locked away. Does that mean that my reward will also be ~0% of my investment?

predicts YES

@GustavoLacerda I think the load is repaid on resolution

@capybara I thought the bulk of your bet would get paid in 2023 (rather than in 2100), since you're getting repaid 4% per day (?). Maybe I'm misunderstanding. Is there a link about the new loan system?

@GustavoLacerda No the reward is based on the investment, not the amount still locked away. You're still committed to the bet. You can just spend the mana again in the meantime, that's all. In theory your mana can go negative because of this.

Here's the description from when you click the Balance Changes notification:
Daily loans on your trades

• What are daily loans?Every day at midnight PT, get 4% of your total bet amount back as a loan.• Do I have to pay back a loan?Yes, don't worry! You will automatically pay back loans when the question resolves or you sell your bet.• What is the purpose of loans?Loans make it worthwhile to bet on questions that won't resolve for months or years, because your investment won't be locked up as long.• What is an example?For example, if you bet Ṁ1000 on "Will I become a millionare?", you will get Ṁ40 back tomorrow.Previous loans count against your total invested amount. So on the next day, you would get back 4% of Ṁ(1000 - 40) =Ṁ38.4.

As in a single instance anywhere? Or as the new standard? Or what? If they're only used for some percentage of tasks because we dedicated time to designing specialized method and silicon ends up better for (insert obscure absurd task here), does that count?

predicts NO

@Aleph That is a good point, I think the interesting question is whether most computers will still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100.

predicts YES

@MikeTearon “Most” is still an ambiguous criteria. Most as in FLOPs or as in device count. If it’s the second, then it could be some tiny low power computer acting as a sensor.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

There's still relay ladder logic and electro-mechanical phone exchanges running in 2023. Legacy tech isn't replaced until it breaks down.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

There will almost certainly be lagging-edge silicon chips because they’re so cheap to produce.

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