
Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?
56
1kṀ14k2026
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Elon Musk tweets, comments, or otherwise publicly expresses genuine doubt in Darwinian Evolution before Jan 1, 2026. “Darwinian evolution” here refers to “macro” evolution — specifically to genetic mutation and natural selection resulting in a dramatic increase in the complexity of a genome. (For example: dinosaurs evolving into birds, primates evolving into humans, fish evolving into reptiles, amoebas evolving into vertebrates)
Resolves NO if this does not occur.
(“Microevolution” as seen in medicine-resistant bacteria, Darwin's finches, dog breeds, etc. is not relevant to this question)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Elon Musk say he believes in God before the end of 2026?
17% chance
Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)
Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Elon Musk take humanity to Mars before December 2034?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk run for US President before 2035?
6% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2030?
91% chance
Will Elon Musk try to use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?
35% chance
Will Elon Musk survive long enough to witness human population collapse?
16% chance
Will it be confirmed that Musk has used sex-selective IVF by the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2040?
56% chance