Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the year-over-year percentage change in the UAE's total labor force during 2026. Resolution will use official labor force statistics from the UAE's Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation or World Bank data (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.IN?locations=AE). The growth rate is calculated as: (2026 labor force - 2025 labor force) / 2025 labor force × 100. The market resolves to the answer option that most closely matches the actual growth percentage reported for 2026.

Background

The UAE reported a Net Employment Outlook of 46% for Q1 2026, placing it among the top three global markets, indicating strong hiring momentum. Workforce growth remained positive through 2025 with official labour reporting pointing to low single-digit expansion across the private sector. Non-oil GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, while the hydrocarbon sector is projected to expand by 6.5%. More than half of UAE employers (56%) expect to increase staffing levels next quarter, though hiring in 2026 reflects project-led growth, Emiratisation pressure, and rising demand for skills readiness over broad workforce expansion.

Considerations

The market measures total labor force growth, which differs from net hiring or employment growth. Labor force growth is influenced by population changes, migration patterns, and labor force participation rates—not just new job creation. The UAE population reached 11.3 million people in December 2024, and continued population growth will be a significant driver of labor force expansion independent of economic hiring decisions.