This market will resolve based on the diet of the “best living human” chosen by this market:
https://manifold.markets/TheAllMemeingEye/add-options-who-will-manifold-think
Vegan → YES
The winner is vegan, including oyster-vegans and freegan-vegans.
Reducetarian / Flexitarian → 50%
The winner significantly reduces consumption of animal products and/or actively promotes reductions in animal-product consumption—whether through donations, public advocacy, or professional work aligned with vegan or plant-based causes.
If the winner was vegan for several years but later adopted a more flexible diet, the market will also resolve to 50%.
Omnivore → NO
The winner follows a typical mixed diet with no consistent reduction of animal products.
Minor reductions in meat intake or general sympathy toward reducing animal suffering will still resolve as NO.
Impossible to know → N/A
There is insufficient public evidence to classify the winner’s diet.
How resolution works
The market will be resolved based on my best judgment.
After the linked market above produces a clear winner, I will examine publicly available information about that person’s diet.
I will use ChatGPT to gather information, and I am open to considering trader input.
Self-identification and long-term documented behaviour take priority over isolated anecdotes.
“Current or recent” dietary behaviour counts; childhood diets or temporary experiments do not.
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on vegan exceptions:
Oyster-veganism (eating bivalves like clams and mussels) will still count as vegan for resolution purposes
Freegan-veganism (eating animal products that would otherwise be wasted) will still count as vegan for resolution purposes
Flexible veganism (e.g., eating vegetarian when traveling or at others' homes) does NOT count as vegan and would resolve to 50%
Example: Peter Singer's stated practice of being "largely vegan but flexible" (eating vegetarian rather than vegan when traveling or at others' places) would resolve to 50%, not YES.
1,000People are also trading
@realDonaldTrump kudos shared with ChatGPT. I created several markets with it, and after several iterations it is getting better at knowing the formatting I want for the resolution criteria.
@MachiNi Thanks for your heads-up. As Peter Singer mentions a couple of different exceptions, I will use this example to clarify the resolution criteria.
Oyster-veganism allows for eating bivalves such as clams and mussels. The latest evidence I’m aware of suggests they lack sentience due to their lack of central nervous system.
Freegan-veganism is a position where someone follows vegan ethics except when the food in question would otherwise be wasted. A freegan-vegan avoids buying or directly supporting animal-product industries, but they might eat discarded, leftover, or “rescued” animal-based foods because consuming them no longer increases demand or contributes to harm.
It is quite easy to judge the oyster-veganism exceptions. It is much trickier to evaluate if a “freegan” choice was really having zero effect in demand.
With regards to other exceptions such as Flexible vegan, they would disqualify the vegan label. Peter Singer’s response to a 2022 interview “I am largely vegan but I'm a flexible vegan. I don't go to the supermarket and buy non-vegan stuff for myself. But when I'm traveling or going to other people's places I will be quite happy to eat vegetarian rather than vegan." would disqualify him, and make the market resolve 50%, unless I find more recent evidence on the contrary.
@MachiNi To be honest, I see veganism as more of a gradient than a strict binary label. When someone like Peter Singer is vegan more than 95% of the time, I don’t think occasional exceptions undermine the overall moral impact. I also make a few exceptions when I’m at my grandmother’s house and in similar situations.
However, for the purpose of this market, I will stick to the three categories originally defined in the resolution criteria (YES, 50%, NO), according to the exceptions listed there.
@MiguelLM I was betting on the 50% understanding. That seems right. (Personally I think like you, it’s a spectrum and he’s probably like 90% as far as I’m concerned. I’m a 97% vegan.)
@MiguelLM Colloquially, a vegan is a person who excludes animal products from their diet. There are of course some edge-cases (e.g. honey, oysters, etc.), but someone who eats eggs and dairy occasionally is decidedly not a vegan in any capacity.
Someone who occasionally beats up homeless people when the mood strikes them is not a 90% pacifist.
@NBAP
This reply is not intended to affect the resolution criteria. I hope the criteria are already clear from the description and my previous comment.
I think we are all sexist, racist, speciesist, etc. to varying degrees. These traits form gradients, whereas veganism is often treated as a binary label. I suspect this is because those other tendencies are mostly internal biases hard to observe directly while veganism involves visible, repeatable behaviours that society can easily track. How do you see it?
Chicken-egg- vegan? Sorry joking