Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?
7
100Ṁ1295
2027
94%
chance

Will resolve to NO if and only if I intentionally eat non-vegan food at some point before 12:00 AM EST on January 1st, 2027.

For simplicity, this market only concerns my diet, and not e.g. purchasing leather (unless I eat it afterwards).

Eating the following will NOT be sufficient for the market to resolve NO: clams, oysters, scallops, and similarly simple animals, as long as I am sufficiently confident they're not sentient that I judge eating them to be morally justifiable; lab-grown meat; honey, if I change my mind on whether eating it is justifiable; vitamins and drugs

Eating the following WILL be sufficient to resolve NO: non-human animal flesh, gelatin, dairy, and eggs, except as specified above. (This list is not exhaustive.)

Eating animal products on accident will not be sufficient for NO. If I put animal products in my mouth and only afterwards realize I've done so, my swallowing what I've already put in my mouth will not be sufficient for NO.

Helpful information about me: I've been consistently vegetarian for about 7 years now. I've been consistently vegan since October of 2024, and as far as I can recall, I have satisfied the above conditions since then. Before then, I had lapsed veganism a couple times, but I had never been as consistent as I am now for nearly as long. I'm pretty outspoken about veganism now, and I have one friend who I know would be quite disappointed in me were I to stop being vegan, so there's incentive not to falter.

I will not be betting in this market.

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I will not be betting in this market.

Respectable but it’s common to bet YES and never sell shares on personal commitment markets. Traders are warned and need to trust you anyway—whether you bet or not. Having large YES shares creates a further incentive for you and works as a commitment device.

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