Toddler Trolley Problem: Where does my son draw the line?
80
16kṀ170k
resolved Jun 23
Resolved
YES
0 - Stops the trolley when all it takes is changing a signal to red
Resolved
YES
1 - Pulls the lever
Resolved
NO
2 - Pushes the fat man
Resolved
YES
3 - Transfers the organs
Resolved
NO
Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics - On any question, avoids responsibility by saying he would close his eyes, look away, ignore the trolley, or something similar, but wouldn't do anything to stop the trolley.
Resolved
NO
Full Deontology (does none of the above)
Resolved
NO
Full Utilitarianism (does all of the above)
Resolved
YES
Outcome inconsistent with any known moral theory.
Resolved
YES
Pre Show prop Bet: Child passes the Marshmallow Test
Resolved
YES
PROP BET - Displays senseless bloodthirst (in any hypothetical, kills people for zero benefit)
Resolved
NO
PROP BET - Little sister gets loose and rips up the tracks
Resolved
NO
PROP BET - Rejects the premises of one or more hypotheticals
Resolved
NO
PROP BET: The camera gets knocked over

My toddler is 3.5 years old. He likes trains.

I will conduct a battery of tests to evaluate his moral reasoning abilities. If he fails I will not be disappointed in him, only disappointed in myself.

I will livestream this for benefit of the degens who want to live trade it. DM me to know the day/time in advance. The market close time is just a placeholder.

For context: the three stages of the traditional Trolley Problem are:

  1. Six people are standing on a trolley track, do you pull a lever to divert the trolley to aa second track where only one person is standing?

  2. Six people are standing on a trolley track, do you push a fat man onto the tracks to stop it before it can hit them?

  3. Six people are fatally ill with different illnesses, do you kill a seventh, healthy person and transfer their organs to the other six people to save their lives.

I've added a step 0 (stops a trolley when it costs you nothing to do so, which i will run first as a warm-up, but will not count towards the all/none options)

I reserve the right to modify these exact hypotheticals for ease of execution and comprehension, while keeping the gist roughly the same. For instance, I may reduce the ratio from 1:6 to more like 1:4

MORE FINE PRINT:

  • My rule about trading in my own markets when there's some discretion in the resolution judgment is that I allow myself to trade, but commit to owning zero shares of any answers sensitive to personal judgement at resolution time.

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reposted

Live stream starting at https://manifold.markets/tv

@traders This will be getting live streamed in about an hour. On the Discord or manifold live.

@traders This will be getting live streamed in about a half hour. On the Discord or manifold live.

I missed it, could you summarize how it went down?

bought Ṁ50 YES

I'm rooting for the little sister

exercise 4: push your little sister onto the tracks to stop the trolley?

(I imagine at that age they love each other so this is probably a gimme)

Is rejecting premises consistent with any moral theories

Probably. This one will be a judgement call because there are too ways to reject the premises to rule on them in advance.

On reflection, I'll probably guide him back to the main question even when he tries to "pick a third option" so as long as we get final answers on 1,2,3 I'll be using those to evaluate.

Good market imo

What’s a prop bet?

a bet about something other than the "main outcome"

what do I vote for if I think he’ll fail* at the calibration stage?

*go for the spectacular option of killing five people

bought Ṁ150 YES

Bet NO on:

0 - Stops the trolley when all it takes is changing a signal to red

And while you're at it, bet YES on:

PROP BET - Displays senseless bloodthirst (in any hypothetical, kills people for zero benefit)

is this is the kid who failed the marshmellow test 🤔

Yes.

Past toddler markets for traders to consider:

@strutheo also known as the kid who won the hearts of many in what can only be considered the best live resolution(s) in Manifold history

reposted

Alright, this market got me laughing pretty hard. I love this.

probs obvious to people in such circles but got a link to how the three levels will be introduced/framed? can guess the gist from context but curious about phrasing (especially re: organs)

bought Ṁ50 YES

I've added a more complete treatment to the market description

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