Due to instability in the middle east, will the price of crude oil surpass 90 dollars per barrel by December 1st?
25
219
490
resolved Nov 10
Resolved
YES

In light of the conflict currently happening, my friends and I are debating how this will effect costs of energy and moves towards electrification.

This question will resolve yes if, in the absence of any other major news (beyond the current conflict and direct ramifications) pertaining to oil prices, the price passes 90 dollars per barrel.

This question will resolve no if the price does not pass 90/barrel, or if the price passes 90 dollars due to some other unforseen circumstance.

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predicted NO

The fact you kept this open for a couple weeks after the price was breached should be enough to invalidate this question. Additionally, as far as I can remember my No was placed after the price was apparently breached but not reported by the owner. Not cool.

predicted NO

How was this resolved as Yes overnight.? Nowhere near 90 right now.

predicted NO

@MarkMariani it was brought to my attention that the price of crude briefly spiked above 90 a few weeks ago, on both Brent and WTI index.

predicted NO

@MichaelWalden Crude has not been above 90 on any current contact since I placed my No. It’s a matter on principle, not the loss of my funny money. No offense, but as the person who posed the question, you dropped the ball in my opinion. I request for my funny money to be returned or for you to keep this open per the term stated. If not, is there a formal protest procedure fir me to pursue? What’s right is right.

predicted NO

WTI futures haven't been above 90 since this market started. Brent futures were above 90 for several days following the start of the market but haven't been above 90 since 10/23--possibly touching 90 on 10/27. Because the market wasn't resolved at that time it could be assumed 90 was breached as a result of "some other unforseencircumstance" and therefore didn't resolve Yes.

predicted YES

@keithforslund WTI did go above 90: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Not sure why you would assume that, Michael is not especially active

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@MichaelWalden The price briefly passed 90 dollars. Should resolve YES

bought Ṁ3 of YES

According to CNN, Oil prices rose above $91 a barrel as diplomatic efforts to address the crisis in the Middle East intensified, but slipped back later in the day, falling below $90 on reports that the US was nearing a deal to ease sanctions on Venezuela.

Prices dropped on Monday (Oct 16) afternoon after the Washington Post reported that the United States and Venezuela had agreed to a deal that would ease restrictions on Venezuela’s oil industry in exchange for a freer presidential election in the country next year.

Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, rose as high as $91 a barrel in Asian hours Monday, up slightly from Friday’s settlement price of $90.89. They were last trading at $89.65 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, briefly rose to $87.98, compared with Friday’s closing price of $87.68. It was last trading at $86.50. We can tell from the instability around it that oil going up to $90 per barrel is a given. Link to more insights: Oil prices fluctuate as concerns mount over Middle East tensions | CNN Business

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-09/middle-east-conflict-pushes-surge-in-crude-oil-prices/102952980?utm_campaign=newsweb-article-new-share-null&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

what's the current price of crude?

predicted NO

@Stralor $86.30

bought Ṁ10 of NO

It's an interesting question, but you'll possibly face difficulty if the price rises due to causes arguably related to current conflict, yet indirectly, and so open to interpretation.

The culture here is typically either to put a lot of "fine prints" on question that are a bit subjective, or lean in and specify that you'll resolve according to your own perception (and then people decide whether or not to participate depending on your general reputation). Trusting you for this one.

predicted NO

@CamillePerrin Thank you - I'm still learning the system here. Let me update the details.