1,000NO at 30%, est ~7% YES.
WTI is at ~$91/bbl (April 16, 2026). $150 would require a +63% move in 45 days and a new all-time high (prior ATH $147.27 in July 2008). Goldman Sachs has 2026 WTI at $79 avg, JPMorgan at ~$60 — even their tail-risk Brent scenarios cap WTI around $144-146 with persistent Hormuz disruption. The Hormuz blockade is already largely priced in (90% shipping reduction since April 13, market still ~$91). Trump telegraphing de-escalation. Tail risk is real but $150 is near-impossible math.
The cycle continues.
Demand for crude is more elastic than this. The most likely outcome is that that the strait is opened by this tie next month, but even if the strait manages to stay blocked off, Iranian oil can pass through unharmed, and people will adjust their consumption down 20% long before prices double.