@traders Looks like the market creator is inactive. If someone wants to present a case for a resolution and provide sources, I'm happy to resolve this as moderator.

@EvanDaniel Genuinely appears to be neither - the prospect of any international military intervention in Niger seems to have stalled out immediately.

@EvanDaniel There has been no military intervention into Niger. The conditional has not been satisfied, market should probably N/A

@SemioticRivalry @Lorxus

Resolving N/A based on this. Thanks! I'd normally like to find sources but sources for "nothing happened" are often hard to find.

@MichaelMcInerney If this is in error, please let me know. We can re-open and/or re-resolve it.

I have decided to increase the market length time as an invasion still seems possible. As this market has always been conditional on the invasion by Ecowas (and would not resolve to neither providing assistance in the event that no invasion happens), I think this is fine.

I hopefully will be able to resolve this N/A within a few weeks.

@MichaelMcInerney why have a close date of Oct 31? If the situation is identical to now on Oct. 30, will you increase it then? If you didn't plan on ending this as planned, you should have extended it indefinitely. N/A on a certain date can be a factor in placing a bet or not. I personally think it's poor form to change the rules because the real world didn't pan out like you predicted. That's kind of the whole point of Manifold. You make a prediction about future events and win/lose. Not change the rules when you are wrong. You made a prediction and then changed your prediction (to Oct 31) when you were incorrect. Countries may be more or less willing to join the conflict as time drags on. Your update completely changed the original intent of this market.

@MichaelMcInerney Can this resolve now?

Related market

https://manifold.markets/MichaelMcInerney/conditional-upon-an-invasion-of-nig?r=TWljaGFlbE1jSW5lcm5leQ

Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?

69% chance. There was recently a military coup in Niger that ousted their president, Mohamed Bazoum. There is talk of an invasion by ECOWAS to restore him to power and to remove the military dictatorship that has taken over the country. This market seeks to predict if any invasion of Niger actually follows through and reinstates the president to de facto control of the country. I am congnizent of the fact that "de facto control" is somewhat tenuous to define. So, for simplicity, a few criteria. Must be able to move of his own free will and not be a (de facto) prisoner of the Nigerien junta, ECOWAS alligned forces, or anyone really. The contnued presence of foreign troops in the country to restore order is fine so long as it can be reasonably evaluated that he is not simply their puppet. The Junta / affiliated groups cannot control significant parts of the country. If the capital city is divided between pro and anti Junta forces, then even if Mohamed Bazoum isn't under their control, he still is not in de facto control of Niger. If there are a few hundered people with a few dozen cars in the Sahara desert trying to bitterly resist the restored government but only control a town or two, then he would have de facto control of the country. Will resolve NA if no invasion and the talk of an invasion dies down. Will resolve No if a new provisional government is established and Mohamed Bazoum is not playing a presiding roll in it. Will resolve yes if, well, he is restored to de-facto control. Not to toot my own horn, but I do have a Master's in political science, so I think I am capable of reaonably making a case for what de-facto control of a country is when I see it. I would be more than happy to add further elaboration upon "de facto control" as needed / requested.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/JohnSmith9249/how-many-members-of-the-economic-co?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoOTI0OQ

How many members of the Economic Community of West African States will deploy military forces in Niger in one month?

1 expected. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the military junta in Niger an ultimatum: restore the president to power or face an invasion. This market will resolve to the number of members of the Economic Community of West African States that deploy military forces into Niger over the next month to back up this ultimatum. This market will resolve to ZERO if there is no invasion. ECWAS members that deploy military forces in Niger in support of Niger will not be counted. There are 14 members of ECWAS other than Niger.

mali and now niger share russia as an ally

I’m just happy this got any bets at all :) . Though I sincerely hope that this resolves as NA