MANIFOLD
By when will Al Qaeda be in control of the capital of Mali?
3
Ṁ155Ṁ170
2027
May 20, 2027
21%
2026-04-01
27%
2026-07-01
27%
2027-01-01

By when will JNIM, an Al Qaeda affiliate, be in control of Bamako, the capital of Mali, according to major news outlets like the New York Times, BBC, Al Jazeera etc.?

See https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-is-on-the-brink-of-taking-over-a-country-ffd35ea4

Each option resolves to true if JNIM is in control on or before that date (UTC time).

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