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MANIFOLD
By when will Al Qaeda be in control of the capital of Mali?
3
Ṁ155Ṁ190
2027
June 28, 2027
16%
2026-07-01
27%
2027-01-01

By when will JNIM, an Al Qaeda affiliate, be in control of Bamako, the capital of Mali, according to major news outlets like the New York Times, BBC, Al Jazeera etc.?

See https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-is-on-the-brink-of-taking-over-a-country-ffd35ea4

Each option resolves to true if JNIM is in control on or before that date (UTC time).

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