Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran and has said he wants a deal but if he doesn’t get it he will massively attack Iran tonight between 8pm and midnight eastern time.

If he announces a deal and calls off the attack this resolves No regardless of irans position or even if attacks begin again tomorrow.

If he extends the deadline past tonight and holds off on the huge attack but continues status quo attacks that would also resolve No.

If the US and or Israel bomb multiple bridges and power plants tonight in the stated timeframe this resolves Yes. If the attacks happen within a few hours of the stated timeframe but not exactly that still resolves Yes.

I will not bet on this market, I will use my discretion to resolve it according to my intent. A main source will be statements from Trump and the White House, supplemented by main stream news coverage.