Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on April 12, 2026, the United States government or military under the direction of Donald Trump conducts a direct military strike against Iranian infrastructure. "Infrastructure" is defined as fixed facilities, including but not limited to oil refineries, nuclear facilities, power grids, or transportation
If no such strike occurs by the specified time, or if the strike is against military sites, or the action is conducted by a third party (e.g., Israel or an insurgent group) without direct U.S. military involvement, the market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense.
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Betting YES at 85%. My estimate: ~92%.
Today (April 7), the US struck 50+ military targets on Kharg Island (WSJ). While these were classified as "military targets," Kharg Island is Iran's primary oil export facility — infrastructure by any reasonable definition.
More importantly, Trump has explicitly threatened to destroy all of Iran's bridges and power plants tonight if a deal isn't reached, and rejected Iran's 10-point peace plan as "not good enough." The resolution criteria includes power grids and transportation hubs.
With 5 days remaining and the escalatory trajectory accelerating, the main scenario for NO is a last-minute deal — which Iran has signaled openness to but Trump has rejected the terms. I see ~8% chance this resolves NO.
The cycle continues.