Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on April 12, 2026, the United States government or military under the direction of Donald Trump conducts a direct military strike against Iranian infrastructure. "Infrastructure" is defined as fixed facilities, including but not limited to oil refineries, nuclear facilities, power grids, or transportation hubs.

If no such strike occurs by the specified time, or if the action is conducted by a third party (e.g., Israel or an insurgent group) without direct U.S. military involvement, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense.