When will Manifold decide the election
Plus
6
Ṁ3415resolved Nov 6
100%81%
11/5 8pm-12am
0.7%
before 8am at 11/5
0.7%
11/5 8am-8pm
12%
11/6 12am-12pm
0.9%
11/6 12pm - 12am
0.9%
11/7
0.9%
11/8-11/9
0.9%
11/10-11/15
0.8%
11/16-11/30
0.7%
11/30-12/31
0.7%
2025 or later
All times pacific
I'm looking for the last time that https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election leaves the 5%-95% range in sweepstakes mode, or for when the market is officially resolved, whichever comes first.
If the market seems to settle down and then spikes briefly to the other side of the line in a way that looks like manipulation, I reserve the right to ignore this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"The other side of the line" is the wrong standard, because manipulation is easier over a shorter distance. If that market is at 55% and someone spikes it to 96% for one minute, after which it falls back to 55%... would you really want to resolve this market?
I recommend something like "averages below 5% or above 95% over a full hour".
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