When will Manifold decide the election
6
1.1kṀ3415resolved Nov 6
100%81%
11/5 8pm-12am
0.7%
before 8am at 11/5
0.7%
11/5 8am-8pm
12%
11/6 12am-12pm
0.9%
11/6 12pm - 12am
0.9%
11/7
0.9%
11/8-11/9
0.9%
11/10-11/15
0.8%
11/16-11/30
0.7%
11/30-12/31
0.7%
2025 or later
All times pacific
I'm looking for the last time that https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election leaves the 5%-95% range in sweepstakes mode, or for when the market is officially resolved, whichever comes first.
If the market seems to settle down and then spikes briefly to the other side of the line in a way that looks like manipulation, I reserve the right to ignore this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ712 | |
| 2 | Ṁ68 | |
| 3 | Ṁ40 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
Sort by:
"The other side of the line" is the wrong standard, because manipulation is easier over a shorter distance. If that market is at 55% and someone spikes it to 96% for one minute, after which it falls back to 55%... would you really want to resolve this market?
I recommend something like "averages below 5% or above 95% over a full hour".
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?
79% chance
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024?
When will Manifold resolve this bet?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Who should run Manifold?
POLL