When will Manifold decide the election
6
1.1kṀ3415resolved Nov 6
100%81%
11/5 8pm-12am
0.7%
before 8am at 11/5
0.7%
11/5 8am-8pm
12%
11/6 12am-12pm
0.9%
11/6 12pm - 12am
0.9%
11/7
0.9%
11/8-11/9
0.9%
11/10-11/15
0.8%
11/16-11/30
0.7%
11/30-12/31
0.7%
2025 or later
All times pacific
I'm looking for the last time that https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election leaves the 5%-95% range in sweepstakes mode, or for when the market is officially resolved, whichever comes first.
If the market seems to settle down and then spikes briefly to the other side of the line in a way that looks like manipulation, I reserve the right to ignore this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"The other side of the line" is the wrong standard, because manipulation is easier over a shorter distance. If that market is at 55% and someone spikes it to 96% for one minute, after which it falls back to 55%... would you really want to resolve this market?
I recommend something like "averages below 5% or above 95% over a full hour".
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.