Caution:The market will close when the IMF publishes a GDP figure above $500 billion, or when the date hits January 1st, 2026 — whichever comes first.
1-The IMF projects Vietnam’s GDP to reach around $506 billion in 2025, with an expected growth rate of 6.1%. However, in a more recent update from April 2025, the IMF revised its growth outlook down to 5.2% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026, raising questions about the certainty of surpassing the $500 billion threshold.
2-The World Bank projects Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2025 to be between 5.8% and 6.8%, depending on different reports. While this suggests solid economic performance, the forecasts fall short of the Vietnamese government's 8% target, and raise some uncertainty about whether the $500 billion GDP threshold will be surpassed.
3-Links
c) https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/c6aceb75bed03729ef4ff9404dd7f125-0500012021/related/mpo-vnm.pdf
e) https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/VNM?zoom=VNM&highlight=VNM
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@Sketchy spot FX is 26315 and consensus GDP growth is around 7.7%.
That gets us to USD c.499bn so I think fair value is slightly below 50% on this market
@WillSLsN sure but the market says it resolved NO if IMF doesn’t publish a new estimate by the end of the year; regardless of the true gdp.
@Sketchy my read of the resolution criteria is that the market closes by EoY but will resolve on the eventual IMF estimate of 2025 GDP retrospectively. If it is on IMF estimate for 2025 prospectively then the market would have resolved positively already because it was already above 500bn
@WillSLsN I don't see that as a plausible read behind the intent of the bolded text, but we'll probably never know given the creator isn't active.
@Sketchy well the creator said the IMF published a 506bn estimate at the outset so they'd have to immediately resolve yes if that was their intention