Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?
21
410Ṁ2512
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15076/ukraine-using-chemical-weapons-confirmed/

On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, accused Ukraine of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although videos supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops.

Ukraine-Russia war
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I've made a similar market for Israel/Palestine: https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-a-chemical-or-biological-weapo?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will a chemical or biological weapon be used in Israel or Palestine before the end of 2023?
14% chance. Resolves to Yes if any party uses a chemical or biological weapon on any target military or civilian, within Israel or Palestine, by the end of the year. If such weapons are not discovered, or are discovered but not used, this resolves No. Weapons that are only technically chemical (such as explosives) or biological (such as waste water) will not count; please accept the spirit of the question. Israel is suspected to have ongoing chemical and biological weapons programs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons Hamas has been accused of carrying around chemical weapon manufacturing instructions during terrorist attacks: https://vxtwitter.com/SkyNews/status/1716176823862587814

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