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14% chance. Resolves to Yes if any party uses a chemical or biological weapon on any target military or civilian, within Israel or Palestine, by the end of the year. If such weapons are not discovered, or are discovered but not used, this resolves No. Weapons that are only technically chemical (such as explosives) or biological (such as waste water) will not count; please accept the spirit of the question. Israel is suspected to have ongoing chemical and biological weapons programs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons Hamas has been accused of carrying around chemical weapon manufacturing instructions during terrorist attacks: https://vxtwitter.com/SkyNews/status/1716176823862587814