Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
12
Ṁ150Ṁ2.2kresolved Jan 26
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17104/3-frontier-labs-issue-statement-before-2026/
As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
"3 Frontier Labs" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
54% chance
Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
87% chance
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
17% chance
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
50% chance
Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?
70% chance
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
35% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
65% chance
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
44% chance
Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
80% chance