From https://metaculus.com/questions/17262/openai-uptime-in-june-2023/
On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a status page showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.
For chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.
Software reliability is often measured in "number of 9"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.
ChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?
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Status page linked in the description is reporting 99.98, is that good enough for a YES resolution?
https://status.openai.com/incidents/6qt257jw6lx7
They had 39 minutes of downtime for logins right around closing time.
That was close. (((30*24*60) - 39)/(30*24*60)) * 100 ~= 99.907% 5 more minutes of downtime today will make this resolve NO.
For my future reference, for calculating this probability after x hours have elapsed on the final day in a 30 day month, given a prior uptime (lazily used 90 days uptime here of 0.9985 from status page (this is questionable and not truly prior/independent since it includes the overlapping current month)), given 39 minutes of downtime this month so far:
Plot 0.9985 * (1 - ((((30*24*60) * (1 - 0.999)) - 39)) / ((24*60) - ((24-x)* 60))) from x = 1 to 24
In future need to calculate a better prior probability for uptime.
I was going to bet but I was still doing analysis when it closed, in the mean time there was an update (looks like the question closed too early, or maybe that was the creator's intention?!):
Customer logins to ChatGPT are not availableSubscribe
Investigating - At this time many users are not able to log into ChatGPT. We are actively investigating.
Jun 30, 2023 - 11:41 PDT
@parhizj https://status.openai.com/incidents/6qt257jw6lx7
Monitoring
We have implemented a mitigation and are observing improvements in login rates. We are continuing to monitor the situation.
Posted 20 minutes ago. Jun 30, 2023 - 12:00 PDT
(nvm, was looking at the wrong API page)
Here's the live status page to save y'all a click or two, by the way:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?