Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?
closes Jun 30

From https://metaculus.com/questions/17114/limjaroenrat-confirmed-as-prime-minister/

Thailand held an election on May 14th, 2023. The result shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):

  • Pheu Thai Party: 141

  • Bhumjaithai Party: 70

  • Palang Pracharat Party: 41

  • United Thai Nation Party: 36

  • Democrat Party: 24

  • Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10

  • Prachachat Party: 9

  • Thai Sang Thai: 6

  • Others: 11

However, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. Bangkok Post.

Moreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government Nikkei Asia.

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