Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Paetongtarn Shinawatra holds the official position of Prime Minister of Thailand on January 1, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from the Royal Thai Government or reputable news sources such as Reuters or the Bangkok Post.

Background

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, became Thailand's Prime Minister on August 16, 2024, following the removal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, by the Constitutional Court. Her tenure has been marked by political challenges, including the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from her ruling coalition in June 2025, which has threatened the stability of her government. (reuters.com)

Considerations

The current political climate in Thailand is volatile, with coalition dynamics shifting and public opinion divided. The potential for further defections from the ruling coalition or legal challenges could impact Paetongtarn's ability to remain in office through January 1, 2026. Traders should monitor developments closely, as the situation is fluid and subject to rapid change.