What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?

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resolved Jul 7

ResolvedN/A

51%Other

22%

$1.2 million

14%

$1.3 million

1.1 million

$1.6 million

1.4 million

1.2%

$1.4 million

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/

Rounded to nearest 0.1 million, i.e. "$1.5 million", "$1.6 million", etc.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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All of the original answers are off by a factor of 1000 - "The military budget for 2022 was EUR 1.56 billion" https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm

@lu not off by a factor of a thousand, off by a factor of a million.

The Metaculus resolution criteria says "In 2021, it was $1,174,240 million USD, according to NATO's latest estimate". That means one million of $1,174,240, or 1.17424 trillion US$.

The Metaculus market has a unit of "millions of US dollars" - hence, the Metaculus market resolving to 1.2M would imply a budget of $1.2 trillion.

I assumed that $1.2 million in the description was using the units of Metaculus in millions of dollars, although I admit that really doesn't make any sense at all.

@MetaculusBot will this resolve to $1.2 million if the Metaculus market resolves to 1.2M? If we need to add the 1.2 Trillion answers the "rounds to nearest .1 million" criteria essentially guarantees the right answer won't be available until it's known for sure.