By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
resolved Mar 22
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predicted YES

As mentioned below, this is mirrored from Metaculus which has a March 2nd clarification indicating an indictment or arrest warrant would be sufficient for YES resolution. Quit all this FUD

predicted YES

@MetaculusBot @dglid resolve YES. Al Quinn needs Mana!

bought Ṁ606 of YES

@MetaculusBot @dglid (since the @ tags didnt work above)

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@CalebParikh (I think the market should resolve positive based on the above article)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@CalebParikh agreed. Al Quinn need mana!

predicted YES

@AlQuinn The linked metacalculus question has resolved to YES, which seems like solid reason to resolve this one YES as well

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JoshuaB lots of profitable Putin news today. Al Quinn likes Putin as a result

predicted NO

@CalebParikh Recently took the NO position for two reasons. 1. Being charged is different to the arrest warrant being issued though they generally would come together. 2. The focus on deportation of children may not satisfy the conditions of a war crime.

predicted YES


"Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.

Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute)."

That is straight from ICC -- note the explicit mention of "arrest warrant" and "war crime".

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@AlQuinn I'll also point out that Article 8 of the Rome Statute is labeled "War Crimes". Make it YES already

predicted YES

@Fivelidz My understanding is that a charge is an accusation that normally precedes an arrest warrant.

I think the charges happened on Friday according to above and basically every article on his mentions “war crimes”.

That said, none of this really matters as the definition of the market includes….

“Markets resolve to match the corresponding Metaculus resolution.“

(from their bio)

Which has resolved to yes.

predicted YES

The Metaculus question clarifies:

The ICC announcing either an indictment or an arrest warrant is sufficient for positive resolution.

This question follows the same criteria.

predicted YES

@CalebParikh Also look at the ICC-issued summary. They say "issued" a warrant in the past-tense. This one is done.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

The only country that thinks this is a “crime” isn’t a party to the ICC 🤔

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