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As mentioned below, this is mirrored from Metaculus which has a March 2nd clarification indicating an indictment or arrest warrant would be sufficient for YES resolution. Quit all this FUD
@MetaculusBot @dglid resolve YES. Al Quinn needs Mana!
@MetaculusBot @dglid (since the @ tags didnt work above)
Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations
@CalebParikh (I think the market should resolve positive based on the above article)
@CalebParikh agreed. Al Quinn need mana!
@CalebParikh Recently took the NO position for two reasons. 1. Being charged is different to the arrest warrant being issued though they generally would come together. 2. The focus on deportation of children may not satisfy the conditions of a war crime.
"Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.
Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute)."
That is straight from ICC -- note the explicit mention of "arrest warrant" and "war crime".
@Fivelidz My understanding is that a charge is an accusation that normally precedes an arrest warrant.
I think the charges happened on Friday according to above and basically every article on his mentions “war crimes”.
That said, none of this really matters as the definition of the market includes….
“Markets resolve to match the corresponding Metaculus resolution.“
(from their bio)
Which has resolved to yes.
The Metaculus question clarifies:
The ICC announcing either an indictment or an arrest warrant is sufficient for positive resolution.
This question follows the same criteria.
@CalebParikh Also look at the ICC-issued summary. They say "issued" a warrant in the past-tense. This one is done.
The only country that thinks this is a “crime” isn’t a party to the ICC 🤔