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Only the original three, per Wikipedia. Resolves No.

@MemeMan Can this resolve?

There have been 18 earthquakes since 2001 (inclusive) that clear the number of fatalities required for this question. Here is a list:

• 2001 gujarat

• 2002 hindu kush (afghanistan)

• 2003 iran

• 2004 indonesia

• 2005 kashmir

• 2005 indonesia

• 2006 indonesia

• 2008 sichuan

• 2009 indonesia

• 2010 haiti

• 2011 tohoku

• 2015 nepal

• 2018 indonesia

• 2021 haiti

• 2022 afghanistan

• 2023 turkey-syria

• 2023 morocco

• 2023 afghanistan

Based on this, a naive base rate calculation would give 11% to 12% odds of an earthquake clearing 1000 fatalities happening in the remaining ~ 55 days of the year. There are some arguments we might consider on top of this naive base rate:

1. We've already had three earthquakes that would qualify in 2023. This might suggest seismic activity in some vulnerable regions of the world, raising the odds of another such earthquake above the background base rate.

2. Population growth across the world might mean earthquakes have more people to kill now than they used to, though this is counteracted by the effects of economic growth making people less vulnerable to natural disasters than they had previously been. Overall, I would guess this actually pushes slightly towards fewer deadly earthquakes.

(1) especially updates me somewhat above 12%, but I don't think I would go as high as 25%, which are the current market odds. Earthquakes seem sufficiently close to Poisson distributed that we should probably not update that much on 2023: at a base rate of ~ 0.8 qualifying earthquakes/year, we expect roughly one out of 21 years to have three or more qualifying earthquakes just by chance, and in the past 21 years we've indeed only seen one - 2023.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67317442

Nepal earthquake: More than 150 killed in remote western Nepal

Security forces are helping rescue efforts in the rugged districts of Jajarkot and West Rukum.

@robm Close but I think deaths will hold under ~300

This market ends on the 10th

@GensingGenis Close date pushed

New candidate: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67114332

New earthquake hits western Afghanistan

The magnitude 6.3 quake struck the Herat province, which has already devastated by recent tremors.

Does it have to be a natural earthquake or would a man made earth quake count as well?

@CertaintyOfVictory Manmade would qualify if the death toll happens as a consequence of the earthquake alone (i.e. bomb --> shaking --> dam collapse and flood would not qualify)