State pension ages have been pushed back before. With the success of auto-opt-in private pensions, will future governments be tempted to push the age back again, or to abolish them entirely?
The current state pension age is capped at 68 years old. This question assumes two millennials, one born 1st January 1981, and another born 31st December 1996. At what age will these two extreme millennials get their state pension? If they both retire under the same age bracket, this market will resolve 100% to that answer, if they retire under two separate answers then I will resolve equally between each correct answer.
This market resolves to "There will be no state pension for millennials" if the state pension is abolished, or if it is replaced by a non-age-gated social security such as unemployment benefits or a universal basic income. If the state pension is rebranded but otherwise continues to provide payment from taxes to older individuals, this market will continue and reflect the rebranded service. If it becomes means-tested (i.e. not universally available for retirees) then this will split the resolution equally between any accurate ages for the state pension, and "there will be no state pension for millennials".
Closure date is set to 15 years before the younger Extreme Millennial will retire, which is likely the latest date that pension legislation affecting millennials would be brought into law. This could be brought forward e.g. if pension legislation was brought earlier that could reasonably be expected to stay in place for both Extreme Millennials.