Will SCOTUS strike down California's Ebony Alert law by 2030?
2
58
70
2031
12%
chance

On 2023-10-08, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 673, establishing the Ebony Alert system for missing Black people ages 12 to 25. As other alerts do not cover this age range--notably, the Amber Alert is for people age 0 to 17--the bill gives law enforcement different authorities for investigating missing people depending on their race. For instance, California Highway Patrol may activate a changeable message sign for a missing 18-year-old only if they are Black (or Indigenous, as the Feather Alert system allows for regardless of age).

I will resolve this market to YES if: By the end of 2030, SB 673 (establishing California's Ebony Alert system) is struck down by an appeals court without SCOTUS intervening to overturn that decision, or if SCOTUS itself directly strikes down the law. This includes any legal action rendering SB 673's race-based provisions, especially regarding changeable message signs for missing persons aged 12 to 25, invalid or significantly altered.

I will resolve this market to NO if: By the end of 2030, SB 673 remains in effect, either because no court has struck it down, or SCOTUS has not taken any action that invalidates the law. This encompasses scenarios where SB 673 faces no successful legal challenges that reach the level of an appeals court decision against it, or SCOTUS chooses not to review such a decision.

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