By 2050, will SCOTUS declare the current civil asset forfeiture system unconstitutional?
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110Ṁ2642050
85%
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Specifically the part where cops just take whatever they want based on zero evidence, and then the victim has to prove himself innocent to get the money back. Shifting the burden of proof from the victim to the taker would be sufficient for a yes resolution, and seems blatantly required by the fourth amendment.
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e.g., money is kept in custody until a court date, wherein the police have to make a clear and convincing affirmative case that the money is crime-related, or else the money is automatically returned to its owner. If that's the new requirement, that's sufficient for a yes resolution.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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