What will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) rate be in 2026?
0
Ṁ1002027
13
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to the overall SPM poverty rate for the United States, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau in "Poverty in the United States" (P60 report).
Resolution source: Census Bureau P60 report for 2026. Census publishes ~9 months after the reference year (e.g., 2024 data published September 2025).
Baseline: In 2024, the SPM poverty rate was 12.9% (Census Bureau, September 2025). In 2023 it was also 12.9%.
Resolution date: ~September 2027 (expected Census publication).
Source: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2025/demo/p60-287.html
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US CPI year-over-year rate for March 2026 be 3.0% or higher?
46% chance
Will the US CPI year-over-year for March 2026 be 2.0% or higher?
89% chance
Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?
60% chance
What will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) rate be in 2027?
21
What will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) rate be in 2025?
13
Will the US CPI YoY for March 2026 be 3.0% or higher?
43% chance
What will the US child poverty rate (SPM, under 18) be in 2025?
20
What will the US child poverty rate (SPM, under 18) be in 2026?
13
Will the US CPI year-over-year for March 2026 (released April 10) exceed 3.0%?
37% chance
Will the US March 2026 CPI YoY be 2.4% or higher?
69% chance