When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?
When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?
15
1kṀ6682050
2052
expected
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There are reasons to think that we might see exploding rates of economic growth this century. One scenario is that the development of artificial general intelligence could lead to rapid scientific and technological progress, resulting in fast economic growth.
The year that GDP doubles because of AI is sometimes called 20AI. I am interested in when this year (a period of 12 months) will take place.
I guess there will be reliable sources to tell whether we see 100% global GDP growth (inflation-adjusted) within the span of one year, so I won't yet specify what source I will use for resolution.
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@Gigacasting Where do you see this? Doesn’t look like it here https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=VE
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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