Will there be a major escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before 2024?
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NO

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as of 2023 has seen heightened hostilities with substantial casualties and international ramifications. The potential for further escalation remains a serious concern, with implications for regional stability and international relations.


Will there be a significant escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before January 1st, 2024?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if any of the following conditions are met before January 1st, 2024:

  1. Death Toll Escalation:

    • Definition: The cumulative, combined death toll on all sides of this conflict reaches or exceeds 100,000 individuals, only counting deaths after October 6th 2023.

    • Verification: Verification will be obtained from cumulative figures reported by the United Nations, or the agreement of at least two independent, reputable, international news organizations.

  2. Major Outside Military Intervention:

    • Definition: A recognized state or significant non-state military actor other than Israel or any Palestinian authority intervenes militarily in Israel, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip. This must include one or more of the following: the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops, at least 50 air strikes, or any other military intervention that directly causes the deaths of over 250 people cumulative.

    • Verification: Verification will be based on official government statements, reputable international news outlets, or documentation from international governmental organizations such as the United Nations.

Notes:

  • These conditions will exclude humanitarian interventions or non-military involvement by new actors.

  • Military actions that are solely defensive in nature and do not significantly alter the balance of power or the scale of the conflict are excluded.

  • Economic sanctions, diplomatic actions, or other non-military interventions are also excluded.

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Yes if - There's a major military intervention that will tip the scales of the war on one side, per adventure either sides recieves heavy funding and military troops from on the scale of a 1000 ground troops or say heavy ammunitions and manpower or third party military intervention that raises the death toll to a cosidereable amount - convesely the conflict between both parties could escalate if the death tolls crosses a certain threshold before 31st of january say about 100,000 individuals.

Does Hezbollah count as a "significant non-state military actor"?

@toms Yes

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