The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as of 2023 has seen heightened hostilities with substantial casualties and international ramifications. The potential for further escalation remains a serious concern, with implications for regional stability and international relations.
Will there be a significant escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before January 1st, 2024?
This question will resolve to "YES" if any of the following conditions are met before January 1st, 2024:
Death Toll Escalation:
Definition: The cumulative, combined death toll on all sides of this conflict reaches or exceeds 100,000 individuals, only counting deaths after October 6th 2023.
Verification: Verification will be obtained from cumulative figures reported by the United Nations, or the agreement of at least two independent, reputable, international news organizations.
Major Outside Military Intervention:
Definition: A recognized state or significant non-state military actor other than Israel or any Palestinian authority intervenes militarily in Israel, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip. This must include one or more of the following: the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops, at least 50 air strikes, or any other military intervention that directly causes the deaths of over 250 people cumulative.
Verification: Verification will be based on official government statements, reputable international news outlets, or documentation from international governmental organizations such as the United Nations.
These conditions will exclude humanitarian interventions or non-military involvement by new actors.
Military actions that are solely defensive in nature and do not significantly alter the balance of power or the scale of the conflict are excluded.
Economic sanctions, diplomatic actions, or other non-military interventions are also excluded.