Avraham Eisenberg is a microcelebrity in crypto and prediction market circles. He was arrested for financial crimes and was denied bail. He currently sits in jail awaiting his trial. You can find more information about his alleged crime here. His trial is currently scheduled for December 2023.
This question resolves to YES if before January 1st 2028, Avraham Eisenberg is found guilty of any felony offense that he has been charged with as of April 28th 2023, which was not the result of a guilty plea, and NO if either all currently pending felony charges as of April 28th 2023 are dropped or dismissed or he is found not guilty of all of them. If he pleads guilty to any of the currently pending felony offenses before 2028, this question will resolve to N/A.
If he is not convicted of any of the currently pending felonies before January 1st 2028, then this question resolves to NO.
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I reworded the question criteria to resolve some minor ambiguities. The main difference is that I clarified that this question will resolve to NO if the charges are dropped or dismissed (previously the question just said "dismissed"). I don't expect anyone to get upset at these changes, but if anyone is upset at the changes, feel free to explain your grievances in response to this comment.
@MatthewBarnett just to clarify something else a bit.
There were some other serious charges added in August. If Avi escapes the Mango charges, but he is found guilty for the new ones that were added in August, this question would resolve no, correct?
@palcu I don't see anything in the court documents suggesting that other charges were added in August. In any case, this question is purely about the charges that existed as of April 28 2023.
All the relevant court documents can be found here: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66709457/united-states-v-eisenberg/
Avraham has already submitted a motion to dismiss and a rebuttal to the government's argument.
Note that @AviEisenberg actually has a Manifold account! Though, he hasn't been active lately, I wonder why...
@Austin I am not sure why it's socially acceptable to be unkind to Avraham. Especially in this case, where you're an admin of Manifold and disclosing the account of a user.
@ElliotDavies I didn't interpret @Austin as being unkind to him in his comment. Can you elaborate on what you mean?
@MatthewBarnett I take "I wonder why..." to be a sarcastic comment mocking the fact he's in prison
@MatthewBarnett GPT4 interprets the comment as hinting with "sarcasm and irony". When asked if the comment could be seen as rude, it answered:
"Yes, the comment can be interpreted as being rude or unkind towards the person in prison. The sarcasm or irony in saying "I wonder why..." when the reason (incarceration) is apparent makes light of the individual's situation. It suggests that the author is mockingly pointing out the obvious rather than showing empathy or understanding for the incarcerated individual."
I'd be interested to know if your question was asked ernstly @MatthewBarnett , as this would update me in the direction of GPT4s relative emotional intelligence.
@ElliotDavies Er I mean - it's definitely a joke about the fact that he's in prison, but I didn't mean it unkindly? I guess I was going for something like "gallows humor".
Fwiw I like Avi and don't wish to see him in jail. (but I also like SBF and don't wish to see him in jail either, ymmv)
I'd really like if a lot of people traded on this. I'm not sure how to promote it. Is that possible? @Austin?
@MatthewBarnett Right now, there are not one but TWO ways to promote this within Manifold!
1. You can "boost" markets you've created by spending 5 mana per view, and the market will show up in other user feeds. (Just released by @Sinclair, we'd love to get your feedback)
2. As a Trustworthy-ish user, you can include your own market as one of your 3 submissions for the https://manifold.markets/group/showcase