Resolves to YES if the first primary contest of the 2024 Democratic party presidential primary (yes, including caucuses in this definition) is in Iowa. Resolves to NO otherwise. In the event more than 1 contest is held on the same day and one of them is Iowa, resolves 50% PROB.
Sister market: https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held-e1139ccecdc9
EDIT 6/6/23 - I should note that I will consider the caucus being held before other contests (but reported after them) to still count for YES. The date the actual voting (or standing in groups in this case) happens is what is relevant.
EDIT 10/9/23 - if the caucuses are divorced from the presidential primary voting (which is not something I had anticipated, lol), they won't count for resolution - only the date that corresponds to "election day" for the presidential primary voting. If it's entirely vote by mail, that'd be the deadline for returning ballots.
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@NcyRocks Apologies, email notification of ready to resolve didn't work for some reason. Thanks for getting the resolution.
This says Iowa's Democratic presidential caucus will be held entirely by mail, with ballots going out starting Jan 12 and the deadline for returning them being March 5: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/politics/democrats-iowa-new-hampshire-2024-primary/index.html
The Jan 15 caucuses will not be part of the presidential contest: "Iowa Democrats will also hold in-person caucuses on January 15, the same day that Iowa Republicans will gather, but those meetings only be used to conduct party business, not to vote for president."
If this is what happens, I would think the date of the election should be considered March 5 (presumably after other contests). I've never heard of an election held by mail where the last day to turn in your ballots wasn't considered the "date" of the election.
@yetimaster if they do end up doing it that way, then yes I would count the date of the "contest" as being the deadline for returning ballots, as that's the closest to a "voting" day that exists in such a case.
This markets appears to still resolve YES under newly approved DNC rules:
EDIT 6/6/23 - I should note that I will consider the caucus being held before other contests (but reported after them) to still count for YES. The date the actual voting (or standing in groups in this case) happens is what is relevant.
@MickBransfield thanks for the ping, though it doesn't appear the comment of yours I got an email about exists any more?
In any case - if the caucuses are held but the primary voting doesn't take place at them, I wouldn't count that for market resolution. Whatever date corresponds to the contest for the presidential primary is what I'll use for resolution (which sounds likely to be March 5th, though all bets are off until it actually happens IMO).